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Weekly Review- No 'Fun In The Sun' For BrownThis week has seen most of the political attention being focused on the Labour Party conference. The conference was the last for Labour before the general election and could be their last for some time as the party of government. The start of the conference focused on controversial claims that Gordon Brown was suffering from ill health but he was quick to dispel these and used his speech to outline his policies for the general election. The reaction of many of the delegates to his speech was upbeat and full of praise but the next day The Sun announced that they would no longer be supporting the Labour Party and would instead be backing the Conservatives at the general election. They claimed that "The prime minister had failed to convince us he was the right man for the country." In Scotland a report by a leading financial academic for MSPs warned Holyrood ministers that they faced an economic environment as challenging as the 70s and 80s in the next financial year. Brown Rallies Troops And Marks Out The Battleground
This week saw the conference bandwagon roll in to Brighton and Gordon Brown attempt to rally his troops ahead of next year’s general election. The Prime Minister got off to a roaring start with a list of impressive Labour achievements over the last 12 years. The impassioned start to the speech enthused the audience and suggested that Mr Brown was indeed ready to come out fighting. However, the rest of the speech did not live up to this. A number of new politics were announced including: • Ten hours of free childcare a week for 250,000 two-year-olds from families "on modest or middle incomes" - paid for by scrapping tax relief for better-off families • A plan to house 16 and 17-year-old single parents in state-run shared houses rather than council flats • A £1bn "innovation fund" to boost industry • A new National Care Service to "provide security for pensioners for generations to come" • A commitment, enshrined in law, to allocate 0.7% of GDP to international aid Mr Brown also claimed that despite the rising national deficit that Labour would protect spending on schools, healthcare and police from any cuts and under a Labour government that the minimum wage, child tax credits and child benefit would continue to go up every year. In what can only be described as a u-turn Mr Brown announced that Labour would not seek to introduce ID cards in the next parliament. In response to the rising national debt Mr Brown said that "Getting the deficit down while maintaining and improving frontline services - that is the Labour approach". In response to the damage done by the expenses scandal Mr Brown also made a pledge to introduce legislation that would allow members of the public to effectively sack MPs guilty of gross financial misconduct who have not already been expelled from the Commons. He also announced a referendum early in the next Parliament with the option to introduce the Alternative Vote system to replace the current first past the post election. Mr Brown called on his party to “fight” for victory in his speech, a message that was echoed by other senior Labour figures at the conference such as Harriet Harman and Peter Mandelson.
The Sun Jumps Ship
Mr Brown’s speech was well received by delegates at the conference with several announcing that it was the “best speech that they had seen him give” but the papers the next day did not make for happy reading for the PM, particularly The Sun who led with the front page headline “Labour’s Lost It”. The paper claimed that it had given Labour "one last chance" in 2005 but now felt it was time for a new government. Political editor George Pascoe Watson said, "The prime minister failed to convince us he was the right man for the country." The Sun was quick to stress though that this was not a ‘blank cheque’ for the Conservatives and they still needed to earn voters trust on key issues like the economy. The Scottish edition of the paper said that it had not yet decided to support the Conservatives and wanted to hear what David Cameron would do for Scotland before choosing their stance. They did however reaffirm that they oppose Independence for Scotland and they would remain unlikely backers for the SNP. In an attempt to play down the significance of The Sun’s decision senior Labour politicians rallied and issued angry responses. Deputy leader Harriet Harman said the party would not be “bullied”. Margaret Beckett announced that whilst the “switch” was a problem it was not “insurmountable”. The impact of the Sun’s declaration of support is an area that is very much open to debate. Since 1979 The Sun has been on the side of the wining party in every General Election. The paper itself claimed to be the reason that John Major defeated Neil Kinnock in 1992 leading with the headline “It was the Sun wot won it!” the day after the election. A number of academic studies have shown that the Sun's coverage did not decisively sway public opinion. Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University has produced empirical evidence that newspapers have "only a small influence on the way that their readers vote". What is much more likely is that The Sun has realised that the majority of its readers have switched sides so therefore it has to follow or risk alienating an already diminishing readership market. It Is The People That Decide
Gordon Brown has shrugged off the Sun's decision by insisting "it is people that decide elections" not newspapers. And he is right, so what are the people thinking? For the first time YouGov have been producing daily opinion polls during the political party conference season. Opinion poll results during the conference season are notoriously questionable with sharp peaks for each of the parties during their conference, it is assumed down to the extra media coverage they gain. An average of the YouGov daily polls since 21 September shows the Conservatives maintaining a healthy lead with 39%, Labour on 28% and the Lib Dems on 20%. Despite such a huge percentage lead if this result was replicated at the General Election it would see the Conservatives with a majority of just 18. The last Conservative Prime Minister John Major, governed with a majority of 21 and that period demonstrated how difficult it is to govern with a small majority and how easy it would be for rebels to cause major problems for Mr Cameron. At a Scottish level we still don’t see much in the way of reliable opinion polls. The most recent is from YouGov on 28 August with Labour 30%, SNP 26%, Conservative 20% and Lib Dem 18%. On that basis the SNP would gain 2 Westminster seats taking them to 8, Conservatives would gain 4 to return 5 MPs, the Lib Dems would gain 1 returning 12 MPs and Labour would lose 7 seats reducing their Scottish MPs to 34. Next Year Could Be A Turning Point
David Bell, a professor of economics at the University of Stirling, has announced that the next financial year could be a ‘turning point’ in Scotland. Professor Bell warned Holyrood ministers that they can expect “much more stringent budgets” from now on. Professor Bell, who is also an advisor to the Scottish Parliaments Finance Committee, issued his warnings in a report to MSPs. Prof Bell went on to state that tough financial times meant both the Holyrood and Westminster governments would have to "take a strategic view of how to manage public services with fewer resources in the next few years". He stated that this could mean identifying services which the public sector can no longer afford to provide, as well as services for which will have to be charged for in the future. |
In this issue
About Weber ShandwickWeber Shandwick Public Affairs is the leading public affairs agency in Scotland with a team of consultants bringing experience from the heart of government, political parties, the Scottish Parliament, Scottish Government and the private sector. Working closely with our colleagues in London, Belfast, Manchester, Cardiff and Brussels we can support your work whether you need to communicate to politicians or decision makers in the Scottish Parliament, Westminster, devolved Assemblies or Europe Pass it onIf you know someone who may be interested in receiving this newsletter, you can easily forward up to five copies at once. |
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